If you’ve seen social media posts or news headlines warning of a housing crash, it’s easy to feel uneasy about the future of home values. But here’s the truth: the data doesn’t support a crash — it supports steady, sustainable growth.
Yes, home price changes will vary by region. Some areas may experience faster appreciation, while others may see small, temporary dips. But across the board, experts agree: home values are expected to rise nationally over the next five years, not fall.
What the Experts Are Saying
The latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae gathered insights from over 100 leading housing experts. The consensus? Prices are projected to increase through at least 2029.
Every forecast shows positive growth — just at different rates year to year. Even the most cautious analysts predict nearly 5% appreciation in the coming years.
Here’s what that means for the market:
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Average forecast: Home prices will rise about 15% by 2029.
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Optimistic forecast: Prices could climb closer to 26%.
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Pessimistic forecast: Even the most conservative experts see a 5% gain.
In short — none of the experts who study housing trends are expecting a decline, let alone a crash.
How This Compares to a “Normal” Market
For perspective, these forecasts show price growth of about 2–3.5% per year, which is slightly below the historical 4–5% average over the past 25 years. That’s actually a good thing.
The dramatic surges we saw in 2020–2022 — when some areas jumped 15–20% per year — were never sustainable. What we’re seeing now is a return to balance, with prices rising at a healthy, long-term pace.
This steady pattern is what’s expected to continue in markets like Tacoma, Puyallup, Auburn, Sumner, SeaTac, Des Moines, Burien, Normandy Park, Lake Tapps, and Bonney Lake — where buyer demand remains strong and inventory remains tight.
Why Prices Aren’t Expected To Fall
So, why won’t the market crash like 2008? It comes down to one key factor: supply and demand.
There simply aren’t enough homes for all the people who want to buy one. Even with affordability challenges, the demand far outweighs supply, keeping upward pressure on prices in nearly every city across the Puget Sound region.
And while some may worry about the broader economy, history shows the housing market is resilient. Over the past 50 years, it has weathered recessions, interest rate spikes, and inflation — and it always recovers.
We’re seeing that recovery unfold right now.
The Bottom Line
If you live in or are considering buying in Tacoma, Puyallup, Auburn, Sumner, SeaTac, Des Moines, Burien, Normandy Park, Lake Tapps, or Bonney Lake, the data is clear: we’re not heading for a housing crash. Instead, we’re entering a period of measured, sustainable appreciation that benefits both buyers and long-term homeowners.
Want to understand how these forecasts impact your local market and home value? Visit Your Real Estate Story to connect with a trusted local expert who knows the South Sound inside and out.
